As they prepare for Game 4 of their Eastern Conference finals series against the New York Knicks on Monday night at Rocket Arena, the Cleveland Cavaliers are trying to do the unexpected, which is to become the first team in NBA history to come back from a 3-0 deficit.
However, according to their head coach, Kenny Atkinson, the analytics suggest this would be a much closer series, or even Cleveland leading 3-0.
On Sunday, after the team’s practice, Atkinson discussed the analytics of this series, and according to him, the analytics favor the Cavs.
“Analytically, we’ve won two out of three,” Atkinson said. “We’re two out of the three in the expected score. If you believe in process and all that, like, man, take that later. I don’t throw that on them. I see it for myself, and if I have this feeling, I can go to our analytical table and be like, man, I think last night the expected score was like one point or two — us shooting way below expected, them shooting way over. I know no one wants to hear that… Everyone is outcome-based.”
Maybe Atkinson is right about the analytics, but unfortunately for the Cavs, what the analytics say and what reality says are two different things. Yes, analytics has a role in the NBA, but as we’ve seen in this series, it’s not everything.
Here’s the bottom line: this series turned and ended for the Cavs the moment they blew a 22-point fourth-quarter lead in Game 1. If they win Game 1, which they should have, they would be preparing for Game 4 as if they have an opportunity to win the series. Now, they are preparing for Game 4, talking about playing for pride and avoiding the sweep.
Look, anything is possible, but again, the Cavs blew their chance to win this series in Game 1.
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